7-21-17 Corn Corn ended the week with a much lower close though nets out higher for the week, Sept corn 11¼ cents lower at $3.79¾, pencils out to 3½ higher for the week while Dec closed 11¼ lower at $3.93 1/2 up 4 for the week. The bears were comforted by a nice band of rains that rolled across portions of the major producing states from West to east with forecasts calling for some more precip this weekend into early next week. Some forecasts looking for 1 to 3 inches of precip hitting into Northern IL/IN, then scattered rains through the weekend hitting the Eastern Dakotas across the corn belt heading into the Northeast sections of the corn belt. Temps expected to break later in the weekend then heat back up mid to late next week. Though there’s been plenty of concern over heat we’ve experienced the past couple of weeks, most areas (exception the Dakotas) has had slightly higher than normal/seasonal temps for this time of year. Beans Aug soybeans down 4.75 at 1008.50. Meal down .8 to $329.7/mt. SQ/U 5 carry, while Q/X 13.25 carry up .5, X/F unc at 8.5 carry. The weather finally lets some showers into NW Iowa which kept the overnight defensive, and mid morning US forecasts generally read benign for next week. Reports north of Bloomington of 1-2” yest thru this AM will aid filling across much of north half of IL. Hearing expectations on soy crop conditions to be down again, perhaps from 1-2% good/exc. With many beans in commercial hands we are seeing basis appreciation nearby.
Wheat Wheat tried to hold its own today with stronger markets early on but corn ultimately pulled wheat lower. Following last week’s bearish turn with the USDA report, net change from LW- SRW was down 11.5 cents, HRW was down 17.5, and HRS was up 7.75 cents BA Grain exchange says 82.5% of the expected 5.4 million hectares of wheat has been planted. Agritel expects the French wheat crop to rise nearly 30% to 36.6 MMT. French harvest is moving at the fastest pace in 6 years, jumping from 29% LW to 63% TW and well ahead of LY’s 16% pace. S America has some concerns as frost events in Parana may have impacted as much as 1MMT of production and Argentine has upwards of 2 million hectares flooded after recent rainfall. Rains are forecast for Australia in the 10-15 day outlook, if realized, S Australia will actually be trending above average for total precipitation. Too little, too late? Ukraine harvest delays due to rains have put their export business behind LY’s pace, having shipped only 194K tons for July compared to 506K tons LY. COT report showed farmer selling has slowed in SRW as harvest has moved into northern OH and MI- lots of reports of growers putting wheat on DP vs. selling- commercial short decreased 6,686 contracts. Specs reduced their long position 5,664 contracts. HRW COT showed similar activity with commercials reducing shorts 1,185 contracts and specs covering their longs on 4,092 contracts. ATI Spring Wheat Tour wrapped up and data is being collected. Early indications aren’t too surprising with the Central/Eastern part of ND coming in with respectable yields and quickly falling off as you work west. Abandonment is the moving target, using 10% abandonment, ND yields based on the tour data look to be around the 34-36 bpa range vs. LY’s 46 bpa.
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