CORN Corn futures closed 2 to 4 cents higher but off session highs. Funds were sellers of 2,000 contracts mid-session and held an estimated short position of 102,000 contracts to start the day. CZ19 went off the board at $3.66, 11 cents lower than CZ18 did a year ago – with a tighter balance sheet this year. CH gained 3 cents for the week. Trade news regarding China the driver today even though it seems corn, and wheat, are only mentioned in that China would suspend tariffs on those commodities as part of “the deal.” Reportedly, they will ramp up purchases of ag goods by 32 bln. dollars over 2 years in addition to prior levels, which if we use the 24 bln. dollar mark in 2017 would equate to 40 bln. dollars a year in ag. purchases. This doesn’t hit the usually mentioned 50 bln. dollar mark but the trade has been unsure over the time frame of that amount – 1 or 2 years. Plenty of uncertainty. Soybeans and pork are surely part of the purchases, so the market is interested in corn, DDGS, and ethanol. USMCA made progress this week and Mexico was a very active buyer of U.S. corn for this marketing year as well as next year.
BEANS Soybean futures closed 9 cents higher today but off session highs of 18+ cents. Funds were buyers of 5,000 contracts mid-day and held an estimated short position of 64,000 contracts this morning. Short covering the order of the day Thursday/Friday. SF gained 18 cents this week. China trade the driver this week, especially the past two days. Market waiting for additional Chinese purchase announcements as it seems they are setting up to buy more beans. NOPA Nov. crush on Monday expected near 172 mln. bu., which if realized would be record for November. October crush was largest on record at 175.4 mln. bu. Plenty of crush demand this fall. Weather in S. America getting more attention, especially in Argentina where it has been quite dry the past two weeks, especially southern Argentina. They are expecting some precip next weekend. NE Brazil remains on the dry side also. Very good production estimates are currently in place so any variance in those expectations could be supportive.
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