Corn closed 1 cent lower today in a 4 cent trading range. Funds were relatively quiet, selling 1,000 contracts as of mid-day and they held an estimated short position of 177,000 contracts to start the day. For the week CH fell 4 cents. Considering the lack of bullish news, this doesn’t seem too bad. The market is on the lookout for a short covering rally but SA weather remains just good enough to seemingly keep this at bay and at the same time is worried about CH heading to where CZ went off the board. In export announcements, Costa Rica picked up 134 tmt of U.S. corn. Informa issued some acreage and yield numbers today. They raised 2017 yield to 176.6 bpa which would add another 100 mln. bu. to 17/18 production. For 18/19, they have acres at 89.7 mln. Coupled with 175 bpa yield the U.S. could have carryout in 18/19 around 2.5 bln. bu. and a stocks to use ration above 17%, which would look much like this marketing year. No concern over running out of corn.
Soybeans closed fractionally lower today after overnight trade seemed to point to a bit of rebound possible. Funds were light buyers of 1,000 bean contracts at mid-day and were estimated long 12,000 contracts this morning. For the week SH lost 23 cents. SA forecasts seemingly improving took their toll this week as the next 7 days are expected to bring better precip chances for Argentina (generally speaking, La Nina conditions are expected to impact Argentina more than Brazil and that has analysts greater attention.) November NOPA crush was just above estimates at 163.6 mln. bu., a new record for November – this while at the same time crushers are very unhappy with crush margins. Informa estimates 2017 soybean yield at 49.7 and 2018 acres at 91.4 mln. Coupled with yield of 49.5 bpa, ending stocks in 18/19 could be over 600 mln. bu. with stocks to use ration above 14%. The U.S. has worked its way to ample stocks of soybeans to go along with corn. In export sales news, China picked up 257 tmt of U.S. beans another 126 tmt of beans were sold to unknown destinations.
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