DTN Midday Grain Comments 02/23 11:46
Grains Mixed at Midday
Mixed trade at midday with soybeans firmer and corn/wheat lower. March
option expiration is today.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are higher at midday with the Dow futures up
160 points. The interest rate products are lower. The dollar index is 15 lower.
Energies are higher with crude up 0.60. Livestock trade is lower. Precious
metals are lower with gold down $2.50.
Corn trade is fractionally lower at midday; we have been mixed with less
than a 3 cent trading range. Ethanol margins are steady this morning with
ethanol futures flat to lower. U.S. export values should remain pretty
competitive. There was a 115,000 metric tons sold to Egypt daily report and the
weekly sales remaining strong at 1.56 million metric tons. Double-crop areas in
Brazil look to build some moisture in the coming days, but that is slowing
planting progress. The USDA outlook forum pegged corn acres at 90 million. On
the March chart support is at the 10-day at $3.66 with the 20-day at 3.63 below
that, with the 200-day moving average at $3.76 the highest moving average and
major resistance with March option expiration putting the $3.70 area in play
Soybean trade is 2 to 5 cents higher at midday with two-sided trade seen so
far with weather and export cancellations battling so far. Meal is $1 to $2
higher and oil is 25 to 35 points higher. The weather pattern looks to keep
Argentina dry, and Brazil wet in the near term that is limiting downside, with
podfill season fast approaching for Argentina. Volatility should continue here
in the near term with overbought conditions persisting in the near term. Early
Brazilian harvest will continue despite being slowed by rains, causing some
crop losses. The USDA outlook forum put soybean acres at 90 million. An export
sale of 106,000 metric tons was announced to unknown with weekly sales
disappointing with -101,900 metric tons of old crop, 221,100 of new, meal
131,600 metric tons, and oil 42,900 of oil. On the March, support is the 10-day
moving average at $10.19, with resistance the $10.39, which is the six-month
high scored Tuesday, and we traded within a quarter of a cent of this morning.
Wheat trade is fractionally to 2 cents lower at midday with trade backing
off the early session highs. The extended forecast continues to be short on
moisture for the SW Plains with more action east and north. The dollar is
higher again today, but remains below 90 on the index. The Russian crop will
continue to be watched with less cover than usual, with Black Sea values
continuing to edge higher with export offers in the $206-a-ton range for the
most part. The outlook forum put wheat acres at 46.5 million. Weekly export
sales were in line with recent weeks at 328,900 metric tons. On the March
Kansas City wheat support is at the 200-day at $4.72 which we keep chopping
around, with resistance the recent highs at $4.84.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered Advisor.
He can be reached at email@example.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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