DTN Midday Grain Comments 06/26 11:33
Grains Mixed at Midday
Corn and beans are fractionally to 2 cents higher at midday, wheat mixed.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow futures up 35 points.
The interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is steady. Energies are
firmer with crude up 44. Livestock trade is mostly higher. Precious metals are
lower with gold down $11.
Corn trade is fractionally to a penny higher at midday; the trading range
has been fractionally lower to 4 cents higher. Some forecast heat with the
mention of a high pressure ridge next week stopped the downside momentum.
Forecasts for this week remain favorable. Ethanol board margins are negative
today with ethanol down a penny and corn higher. The weekly export inspections
were softer than recent weeks at 965,608 metric tons. The weekly crop progress
report is expected to show 1-3% improvement on conditions with maturity running
a little behind normal. The market focus this week should be on the updated
USDA acreage and current forecasts for heat next week. July corn futures have
support at the new low printed Friday at $3.56 with resistance at the 10, 50,
and 200-day moving averages at $3.71.
Soybean trade is fractionally to 2 cents higher at midday after trading up
around 6 cents overnight. Meal is narrowly mixed and oil is flat. The USDA June
Planting Intentions and June Quarterly Stocks reports will be out Friday
morning. We could find a bounce before them with shorts taking some profits and
waiting for the USDA numbers. Added acreage should be the main focus this week.
South America should continue to push bushels into the world export market at
competitive prices. The weekly export inspections were soft at 315,099 metric
tons. The weekly crop progress is expected to show conditions 1-3% better with
emergence remaining just ahead of normal. July beans have major support at the
$9.00 14-month low made last week, with the 10-day and 20-day at $9.24 first
Wheat trade is mixed at midday with winter wheat down 6 to 10 cents with
harvest pressure and Minneapolis wheat 2 to 5 higher on the expectations of
continued condition declines. The winter wheat harvest expansion is limiting
upside for winter wheat with hedge pressure. Protein levels have been
disappointing in Kansas with mixed yields so far with more western Kansas that
saw the winter storm stress expected to be cut this week. Trade will be
watching for further declines in European conditions as well with hot weather
for much of the growing area this week, and slow progress in Russia. The dollar
has slid back to the lower end of the range which should help export
competitiveness. Weekly export inspections were 629,070 running in line with
recent weeks. Weekly crop progress is expected to keep harvest ahead of normal;
with spring wheat conditions another 2-4% lower. On the July Kansas City
contract support is the 200-day at $4.51 below that with resistance the recent
high at $4.81.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered Advisor.
He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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