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DTN Midday Grain Comments     01/22 11:02

   All Grains Lower at Midday

   Corn is 7 to 8 cents lower, soybeans are 19 to 21 cents lower, and wheat is 
12 to 16 cents lower.

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

   The U.S. stock market is weaker with the Dow down 150. The dollar index is 5 
higher. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are weaker with crude down 
$0.60. Livestock trade is higher. Precious metals are mixed with gold down 


   Corn trade is 7 to 8 cents lower at midday with broad commodity risk off 
trade this a.m. encouraging selling while spread trade remains mostly steady. 
Ethanol margins will remain poor with soft demand, and with limited relief in 
the cash market short term with the weekly report showing production 4,000 
barrels per day higher, and stocks down 64,000 barrels. Basis has remained 
fairly sideways. Weekly export sales were strong again at 1.44 million metric 
tons. On the March contract, support was the gap area at $5.17, which we are 
trading just below at midday and bounced from with the 20-day at $4.96 below 
that, with the next level up the contract high at $5.41 1/2.


   Soybeans are 21 to 23 cents lower at midday with trade testing support 
levels as spread trade weakens despite fresh export sales of 136,000 metric 
tons to China again today. Meal is $5.50 to $6.50 lower and oil is 55 to 65 
points lower. Basis will likely remain flat with crush likely to take 
precedence over shipping in coming weeks with crush margins narrowing overall 
and new crop seeing more interest in recent export bookings. Brazil should 
catch rains short term with very early harvest underway, with Argentina action 
mixed. Weekly export sales were very strong at 1.82 million metric tons of old 
crop, 831,000 of new crop, meal was 468,500 metric tons, and oil 52,300. The 
March chart has support at the 20-day moving average of $13.46 which we have 
tested so far with resistance the old support area around $13.85.


   Wheat trade is 12 to 16 cents lower at midday with trade following the lead 
of the row crops so far, with Chicago seeing the most pressure so far with 
intramonth spreads relaxing. The dollar remains above 90 on the index with 
light buying in risk off trade. The Plains are expected to see limited moisture 
with cold scares remaining limited for now. Kansas City is at 21-cent discount 
to Chicago with the pattern of narrower overnight trade continuing, with 
Minneapolis at -21 as well. Weekly export sales remain a bit soft at 329,600 
metric tons. Kansas City March chart support is the 20-day at $6.10, and 
resistance is the upper Bollinger Band at $6.51.

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