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DTN Midday Grain Comments     03/31 11:03

   Grains Mixed at Midday

   Corn is 1 to 3 cents lower, soybeans are 1 to 2 cents higher, and wheat is 
flat to 6 cents higher. 

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments



   The U.S. stock market is firmer with the Dow up 110 points as active trade 
continues. The dollar index is 5 points higher. Interest rate products are 
mixed. Energies are mixed with crude $0.40 higher. Livestock trade is mixed 
with hogs leading. Precious metals are mixed with gold down $20.00.


   Corn trade is 2-3 cents lower at midday in choppy pre-report action with 
trade remaining range bound. Ethanol margins remain very poor, with more plants 
shutting down, with ethanol at a 35 cent premium with unleaded trying to bounce 
off the lows. Corn basis will likely continue to see pressure except for 
export-oriented locations. Rains will keep early fieldwork slow. The USDA 
announced 113,000 metric tons of old crop corn sold to Japan. On the report, 
the average guess is for 94.325 million acres on a range of 92.5 million to 
96.4 million, with stocks at 8.125 billion bushels on a range of 7.845 billion 
to 8.492 billion. On the May contract, support is the lower Bollinger Band at 
$3.27, and resistance the 20-day at $3.56.


   Soybean trade is 1 to 2 cents higher with profit taking and position 
squaring ahead of the report today as we ease back from overbought conditions. 
Meal is $3.00 to $4.00 lower and oil flat to 10 points higher. South America is 
continuing to harvest with port disruptions this biggest concern at the moment 
with talks of strikes in Argentina as well, while the Brazilian ral remains 
very weak. New-crop soybeans will need to gain vs. corn to provide an acreage 
incentive with the price ratio now at 2.4 or better as we approach early 
planting with today's report expected to encourage further realignment. The 
acre range on the report is at 84.865 million acres with the range at 82.7 to 
87.1 million, with stocks at 2.241 billion on a range of 2.075 billion to 2.701 
billion. The May soybean chart support is the 20-day at 8.68, and the recent 
high at $8.97 as resistance.


   Wheat trade is mostly flat with two-sided trade ahead of the report with 
Kansas City trade leading. Russia continues to review export policies for the 
short term as well, with local values elevated. Kansas City is at a 82-cent 
discount to Chicago on the May with choppy trade continuing, while Minneapolis 
is -34 with wider action ongoing. On the report acres are expected at 44.982 
million on a range of 44.35 million to 46.0 million with stocks at 1.432 
billion on a range of 1.385 to 1.572 billion. The May Kansas City chart support 
is the 20-day at $4.59, with resistance the $5.08 upper Bollinger Band. 

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser. 
He can be reached at 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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